Russian strike on Poland by...?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, 9 PM ET and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Ticker

russian-strike-on-poland-by-september-30

Volume

1.9M

24h volume

1.9K

1w volume

758.7K

Open interest

32.6K

Liquidity

32.9K

Liquidity CLOB

32.9K

Start

Sep 9, 2025

End

Dec 31, 2025

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Sep 9, 2025

Event ID

42958

Slug

russian-strike-on-poland-by-september-30

Markets

3

Tags

GeopoliticsRussiaWorldPoland
Raw event data
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    "context_description": "Poland's NATO membership and Article 5 collective defense commitment serve as primary deterrents against direct Russian military action, anchoring trader consensus on low escalation risk despite spillover from the Ukraine conflict. In the past 30 days, Russian missile and drone strikes on western Ukrainian cities like Lviv—mere 70 km from the border—have repeatedly prompted Polish F-16 scrambles and air defense alerts, including activations on March 24, March 14, and as recently as April 3 amid large-scale attacks. Hybrid threats, such as GPS jamming disrupting Polish and Baltic systems, have intensified concerns, but no verified strikes have hit Polish territory. Upcoming NATO eastern flank drills and Ukraine frontline developments could influence probabilities.",
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