US bank failure by April 30?

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      "ticker": "bank-failure",
      "slug": "bank-failure",
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      "id": "100328",
      "label": "Economy",
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    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 77.5% implied probability of no US bank failure by April 30, driven by the sector's robust financial health following the FDIC's sole 2026 closure of small Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust on January 30, with just $261 million in assets and minimal $19.7 million cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund. No subsequent failures have occurred over the past two months, bolstered by healthy balance sheets, elevated common equity tier 1 ratios, and favorable February Federal Reserve stress test scenarios projecting resilience amid a severe hypothetical recession. Solid Q1 2026 earnings outlooks for major banks, releasing this week, further anchor sentiment, though low-single-digit recession odds and commercial real estate exposure sustain a 22.5% tail risk premium for an upset.",
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    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-06T18:54:25.973Z"
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