US military draft authorized in 2026?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Ticker

us-military-draft-authorized-in-2026

Volume

99.1K

24h volume

4.4K

1w volume

19.5K

Open interest

42.7K

Liquidity

45.6K

Liquidity CLOB

45.6K

Start

Mar 13, 2026

End

Dec 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 13, 2026

Event ID

263304

Slug

us-military-draft-authorized-in-2026

Markets

1

Raw event data
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  "slug": "us-military-draft-authorized-in-2026",
  "title": "US military draft authorized in 2026?",
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    {
      "id": "2",
      "label": "Politics",
      "slug": "politics",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
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  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Traders' 87% consensus against US military draft authorization in 2026 reflects the absence of any congressional bill or executive action to reinstate conscription, which remains inactive since 1973 and requires specific legislation plus presidential approval amid a national emergency. Recent passage of the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act in December 2025 mandated automatic Selective Service registration for males aged 18-26 using federal databases, effective December 18, 2026, sparking social media alarm but clarifying no draft activation—merely updating a dormant registry amid recruiting shortfalls addressed via enlistment age hikes to 42. Political hurdles, including bipartisan reluctance post-Vietnam and all-volunteer force reliance, sustain low odds despite geopolitical tensions.",
    "context_requires_regen": true,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-06T19:20:49.667Z"
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