US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?

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  "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before U.S. President Donald Trump visits China. \n\nThis market will resolve to “No” if U.S. President Donald Trump visits China before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran. \n\nIf there is neither a qualifying ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran nor a qualifying visit of Trump to China by June 30, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve 50-50.\n\nIf the qualifying ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran and Trump's qualifying visit to China occur on the same calendar date, this market will resolve based on which event occurred earlier in ET time.\n\n1. Trump visits China\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the People's Republic of China. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for Trump's visit to China will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n\n2. US x Iran ceasefire\n\nFor the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.\n\nIf the agreement is officially reached before Trump visits China, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether or when the ceasefire officially takes effect.\n\nAny form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nA broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for whether a qualifying ceasefire agreement has been reached will be  official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.",
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    "context_description": "Trader sentiment favors \"No\" at 53% for a US-Iran ceasefire before President Trump's rescheduled May 14-15 Beijing summit, driven by Iran's rejection hours ago of a 45-day truce proposal from mediators, insisting instead on a permanent end to hostilities amid ongoing US strikes and Strait of Hormuz tensions. Trump's description of the plan as a \"significant step\" yet insufficient, coupled with his Tuesday deadline and threats of escalated military action—including claims Iran could be \"taken out in one night\"—signal persistent deadlock despite backchannel talks and a brief March partial pause on energy infrastructure attacks. This closely contested market reflects mediation momentum versus de-escalation barriers, with acceptance of a short-term deal or further postponement of the China trip potentially tipping odds toward \"Yes,\" while Hormuz impasse escalation favors \"No.\"",
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