Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?

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    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors \"No\" at 86% implied probability for George R.R. Martin announcing The Winds of Winter in 2026, driven by Bantam Books' April 2026 debunking of viral rumors claiming the manuscript finished for a fall release—\"online chatter is false.\" Martin's Not A Blog has offered no progress updates on the long-awaited A Song of Ice and Fire installment since 2020, with his latest February post focusing on a stage play adaptation. A January interview revealed ~1,100 pages written amid distractions from HBO's Dunk and Egg series and Fire & Blood sequel, admitting rewriting hurdles and priority conflicts. Fifteen years post-Dance with Dragons, historical delays and TV commitments reinforce skepticism, though year-end interviews could spark shifts.",
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