Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

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    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 74.5% implied probability that Iran will not withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2027, driven by the absence of concrete action despite heightened rhetoric amid the ongoing US-Israeli-Iran conflict. Late March 2026 saw Iranian lawmakers fast-track a bill to exit the NPT—citing US-Israeli airstrikes on nuclear facilities, steel plants, and infrastructure as justification—while Foreign Ministry officials decried the treaty as enabling espionage via IAEA inspections. However, no parliamentary vote or formal withdrawal announcement has followed, consistent with Tehran's historical pattern of threats since 2004 without follow-through. Current escalation centers on Iran's Strait of Hormuz blockade and President Trump's April 6 ultimatum threatening major strikes on power plants unless reopened by Tuesday, diverting focus from NPT deliberations and underscoring diplomatic and military risks of exit amid war.",
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