Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

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    "context_description": "Trader consensus heavily favors \"No\" at 90.5% implied probability for Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, reflecting the Islamic Republic's resilience amid the sixth week of U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that began late February. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in initial strikes prompted the swift March 8 installation of his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor by the Assembly of Experts, with IRGC vows of loyalty signaling institutional continuity despite rumors of the new leader's injury. Exiled opposition figure Pahlavi's recent appeals—including a call yesterday for IRGC surrender and speeches at CPAC and Liberty University—position him for a potential transitional role, but his directive for protesters to await a \"final call\" has limited uprisings. Absent mass defections or ground escalation, regime change remains unlikely by year-end.",
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