Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47°39'45.5"N 36°15'13.1"E) by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Huliaipole will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the entirety of Huliaipole, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vXBbP9idYDbbC21RA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Ticker

will-russia-capture-all-of-huliaipole-by-february-28

Volume

700.9K

24h volume

4.7K

1w volume

137.8K

Open interest

32.5K

Liquidity

15.7K

Liquidity CLOB

15.7K

Start

Feb 6, 2026

End

Mar 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Feb 6, 2026

Event ID

198776

Slug

will-russia-capture-all-of-huliaipole-by-february-28

Markets

3

Tags

GeopoliticsUkraine MapPoliticsUkraine
Raw event data
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  "title": "Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?",
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    "context_description": "Ukrainian counterattacks around Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast have stalled Russian advances, liberating over 400 square kilometers in the Oleksandrivka and Huliaipole sectors since late January 2026, according to the Institute for the Study of War's April 6 assessment. These actions forced redeployments of Russian naval infantry units, disrupting Moscow's spring offensive momentum despite incremental Russian gains west of the town toward Huliaipilske in recent days. The area remains a contested gray zone with no clear front line, following intense fighting since late 2025 when Russian forces entered parts of Huliaipole. Traders should monitor ongoing clashes and potential escalations through April 30 resolution, as Ukrainian defenses continue to generate local breakthroughs amid broader frontline pressures.",
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