Will Russia capture Lyman by...?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Ticker

will-russia-capture-lyman-in-2025

Volume

2.0M

24h volume

9.5K

1w volume

162.5K

Open interest

157.6K

Liquidity

55.1K

Liquidity CLOB

55.1K

Start

Jul 22, 2025

End

Dec 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Jul 22, 2025

Event ID

33647

Slug

will-russia-capture-lyman-in-2025

Markets

8

Raw event data
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      "question": "Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31?",
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      "question": "Will Russia capture Lyman by November 30?",
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      "question": "Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?",
      "conditionId": "0x309ae759aefeb898fbc17881e16b796aceb3ce7ee99d077bae89f46904ef3635",
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      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nTrain Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png\n\nTrain Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg\n\nLyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg\n\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
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      "question": "Will Russia capture Lyman by February 28, 2026?",
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      "question": "Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?",
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      "question": "Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026?",
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    "context_description": "Russian forces launched a large-scale mechanized assault toward Lyman in mid-March 2026, involving over 500 troops, armor, and motorcycles across seven directions as part of their spring offensive in Donetsk Oblast, but Ukrainian 3rd Corps and 66th Brigade repelled it decisively, destroying dozens of vehicles including tanks, APCs, and IFVs while inflicting heavy casualties and securing no territorial gains. Institute for the Study of War assessments through April 5 confirm ongoing probing attacks near Lyman, Drobysheve, and Svyatohirsk without confirmed advances, highlighting Russian manpower shortages and high attrition rates. Lyman endures as a key Ukrainian logistical hub blocking paths to Slovyansk, with improving spring weather potentially enabling escalated ground operations or reinforcements.",
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