
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Ternuvate, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47.8301° N, 36.1268° E) between market creation and February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Ticker
will-russia-enter-ternuvate-again-by-february-28
Volume
338.1K
24h volume
1.5K
1w volume
106.3K
Open interest
15.9K
Liquidity
5.6K
Liquidity CLOB
5.6K
Start
Feb 11, 2026
End
Mar 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Feb 11, 2026
Event ID
205273
Slug
will-russia-enter-ternuvate-again-by-february-28
Markets
3
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Ukrainian forces retook the small Zaporizhzhia Oblast settlement of Ternuvate in early February 2026, eliminating a Russian sabotage group that had briefly infiltrated and staged propaganda footage after Moscow's late-January capture claim. The frontline has since remained static in this Huliaipole direction, with no verified Russian re-entry into Ternuvate per ISW maps. In the past 30 days, the most recent notable development was a Russian milblogger's report of Ukrainian counterattacks near Ternuvate on April 1-2, alongside unconfirmed Russian probing nearby Boikove and Zorivka amid broader spring offensive pressures elsewhere like Donetsk. Traders monitor ISW updates for any territorial shifts, as the area sees sporadic assaults but no escalation to settlement capture.",
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}- Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by April 30?Vol 19.0KLiq 5.6KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by March 31?Vol 218.3KLiq —End Mar 31, 2026Closed
- Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by February 28?Vol 100.8KLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed