Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Ticker

will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026

Volume

13.2M

24h volume

63.7K

1w volume

952.9K

Open interest

3.2M

Liquidity

387.0K

Liquidity CLOB

387.0K

Start

Nov 3, 2025

End

Dec 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Nov 3, 2025

Event ID

72347

Slug

will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026

Markets

1

Tags

IsraelIranTrumpWorldKhameneiGeopoliticsMiddle EastPoliticsReza PahlaviIran Regime
Raw event data
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    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling before 2027, reflecting its demonstrated resilience amid severe shocks. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and security forces have maintained cohesion following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, swiftly installing his son Mojtaba as successor via the Assembly of Experts. Brutal crackdowns—including thousands of arrests, executions as recent as April 5, and foreign militia deployments—suppressed the 2025-2026 protests that killed up to 36,000, preventing mass defections despite economic collapse and ongoing war airstrikes into day 38. U.S. intelligence on March 11 assessed no imminent collapse risk, with IRGC control intact, though post-war unrest and Strait of Hormuz tensions loom as potential catalysts.",
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