Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States acquires control of any land territory that is part of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only the transfer of sovereignty, or the acquisition of primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control qualifies. 1. Transfer of Sovereignty: This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument results in a defined area of Greenland coming under the formal sovereignty of the U.S. (e.g., incorporated as a U.S. state, territory, possession, or other U.S. political classification), even if the effective date occurs after the market deadline. 2. Acquisition of Primary or Exclusive Jurisdiction or Control: This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument establishes a defined area in Greenland in which the U.S. has primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control over the territory, such that the ordinary legal authority of Denmark and Greenland do not apply,except by U.S. permission. Such agreements or instruments will qualify even if the effective date occurs after the market deadline. 3. Use of Force: If the U.S. acquires primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control over a defined area of Greenland through force, this will also qualify. An announcement will qualify only if it is accompanied by or consists of a binding agreement or legal instrument (e.g., enacted legislation, a signed treaty, the signed text of an agreement, or an executive action implementing such an agreement) that unambiguously creates a transfer of sovereignty, or primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control, even if this transfer or acquisition takes effect after the market deadline. Non-binding statements, negotiations, proposals, frameworks, or MOUs will not alone qualify. Basing rights, access agreements, SOFA-type arrangements, COFA-type arrangements, commercial concessions, or other permissions to use land (including leases) will not alone qualify. Any qualifying U.S. jurisdiction or control in Greenland that existed at market creation will not count as new qualifying control. Examples of qualifying events include but are not limited to treaty or piece of legislation that makes any portion of Greenland a U.S. territory or possession, even if the handover date for such territory or possession is later); or, a Guantánamo-style arrangement establishing a defined zone in Greenland under exclusive or primary U.S. jurisdiction and control, where Denmark and Greenland’s ordinary legal authority does not apply except by U.S. permission. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States, Denmark, and Greenland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Ticker

will-the-us-acquire-any-part-of-greenland-in-2026

Volume

9.3M

24h volume

17.2K

1w volume

111.6K

Open interest

1.3M

Liquidity

188.0K

Liquidity CLOB

188.0K

Start

Jan 7, 2026

End

Dec 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Jan 7, 2026

Event ID

148292

Slug

will-the-us-acquire-any-part-of-greenland-in-2026

Markets

1

Tags

PoliticsGreenlandTrumpGeopoliticsDavos
Raw event data
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    "context_description": "President Trump's January 2026 push for US acquisition of Greenland—including Davos pitches for purchase and GOP bills like the Greenland Annexation Act—prompted firm Danish rejections, with Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen affirming persistent opposition and invoking international law barriers. Recent Pentagon talks in late March center on expanding military basing at sites like Thule Air Base for Arctic defense, not sovereignty transfer, amid NATO alliance tensions. Absent formal negotiations or Greenlandic consent, traders' 85.5% \"No\" consensus reflects entrenched diplomatic obstacles, legal precedents against annexation, and a shift to cooperative access over ownership by year-end.",
    "context_requires_regen": true,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-06T22:32:13.457Z"
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