Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

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    "context_description": "Trader consensus reflects a 92.5% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Mexico in 2026, driven by the absence of any official military deployments, congressional authorization, or White House announcements signaling ground troop incursions despite ongoing presidential rhetoric on combating cartels. Mexican forces' February operation killing Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes (\"El Mencho\") has reduced escalation pressures, bolstering bilateral security cooperation as reaffirmed in March by President Claudia Sheinbaum's firm rejection of U.S. troops on Mexican soil. U.S. actions remain confined to naval strikes on drug boats and border support deployments, facing high legal, diplomatic, and constitutional barriers including potential international backlash and lack of casus belli. No major catalysts have emerged in the past 30 days to shift this dynamic.",
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