Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Ticker

will-trump-be-impeached-by-december-31-2026

Volume

653.1K

24h volume

1.0K

1w volume

13.3K

Open interest

174.2K

Liquidity

50.2K

Liquidity CLOB

50.2K

Start

Jul 25, 2025

End

Dec 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Jul 25, 2025

Event ID

34348

Slug

will-trump-be-impeached-by-december-31-2026

Markets

1

Raw event data
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    "context_description": "Republican control of the House of Representatives, requiring a simple majority to pass articles of impeachment, underpins the 88.5% trader consensus against President Trump facing impeachment by year's end. Recent Democratic resolutions like H.Res. 353 and 939, introduced amid tensions over Trump's Easter message to Iran and escalating U.S.-Iran rhetoric, have garnered no committee advancement or GOP defections. House Democratic leaders, per Punchbowl News reporting, urge restraint to avoid political backlash ahead of 2026 midterms, where a flip remains speculative and new Congress convenes January 2027—post-resolution. Absent a major scandal or bipartisan revolt, structural barriers favor the status quo.",
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