
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of May 2026. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Ticker
elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2026
Volume
379.9K
24h volume
29.4K
1w volume
49.0K
Open interest
24.2K
Liquidity
314.9K
Liquidity CLOB
314.9K
Start
Mar 24, 2026
End
Jun 1, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 24, 2026
Resolution source
https://x.com/elonmusk
Event ID
301948
Slug
elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2026
Markets
66
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"question": "Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets in May 2026?",
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"description": "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of May 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.008\", \"0.992\"]",
"volume": "4696.679695999999",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-03-24T04:00:09.880678Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-22T01:12:31.074663Z",
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"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x69c47De9D4D3Dad79590d61b9e05918E03775f24",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "2000+",
"groupItemThreshold": "65",
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"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 4696.679695999999,
"liquidityNum": 2433.25238,
"endDateIso": "2026-06-01",
"startDateIso": "2026-03-24",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"67364828371746738517326291415110668203177580672323796488684920585812932685040\", \"93817235995877971863169639673457919692847095347890809468099021583376042901600\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "2",
"volumeClob": 4696.679695999999,
"liquidityClob": 2433.25238,
"makerBaseFee": 1000,
"takerBaseFee": 1000,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": true,
"negRiskMarketID": "0x94b392a18305d721af9238a45dc4e066b7690e63611bef7b4f7fef5ab9f6df00",
"negRiskRequestID": "0xd777a8cdc3187f01ec374ef12ed34667fa9fbb35d296e3dcf7e0a9d893a940a9",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-03-24T04:13:07Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.8051114918393899,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"rewardsMinSize": 50,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
"spread": 0.006,
"oneWeekPriceChange": -0.0075,
"lastTradePrice": 0.016,
"bestBid": 0.005,
"bestAsk": 0.011,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-24T04:01:47.210281Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": true,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": "culture_fees",
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}
}
],
"series": [
{
"id": "10181",
"ticker": "elon-tweet-daily",
"slug": "elon-tweet-daily",
"title": "elon tweet daily",
"seriesType": "single",
"recurrence": "daily",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-trump-issue-an-executive-order-on-february-14-IRIODX3MAqwP.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/trump-negative-approval-before-march-1qIERzlB6HpB.jpg",
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"closed": false,
"archived": false,
"featured": false,
"restricted": true,
"createdAt": "2025-07-29T09:21:42.543507Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-22T01:13:18.153286Z",
"volume24hr": 530803.994411,
"volume": 9209777.194094002,
"liquidity": 635462.76505,
"commentCount": 485,
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"tags": [
{
"id": "596",
"label": "Culture",
"slug": "pop-culture",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-29 18:40:13.013+00",
"createdAt": "2023-11-29T18:40:14.63Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:31:50.147585Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
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"label": "Politics",
"slug": "politics",
"forceShow": false,
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"updatedBy": 13,
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"updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:39:54.201881Z",
"forceHide": true,
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},
{
"id": "972",
"label": "Tweet Markets",
"slug": "tweets-markets",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2024-02-06 19:19:25.344+00",
"createdAt": "2024-02-06T19:19:25.37Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:34:18.711987Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"cyom": false,
"showAllOutcomes": true,
"showMarketImages": false,
"enableNegRisk": true,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"startTime": "2026-05-01T04:00:00Z",
"seriesSlug": "elon-tweet-daily",
"negRiskAugmented": false,
"tweetCount": 0,
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-24T04:00:13.421066Z",
"requiresTranslation": false,
"eventMetadata": {
"context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 1160-1279 total posts by Elon Musk (@elonmusk) in May 2026, implying a daily average of 37-41 tweets over 31 days, closely tracking his confirmed March total of roughly 1,320-1,359 amid consistent high-volume activity fueled by Tesla updates, SpaceX milestones, and X platform discourse. Recent late-April slowdown—27 posts from April 20-22 and just 3 in the early April 21-28 window per XTracker data—has evened the odds between 1240-1279 (12.3%) and 1160-1199 (12.0%), heightening uncertainty over whether Musk sustains peak bursts or moderates amid potential distractions like earnings seasons or launches. Watch first-week May volume and viral engagement spikes as key swing factors in this tight race.",
"context_requires_regen": false,
"context_updated_at": "2026-04-22T00:20:15.054Z"
}
}