
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-june-30
Volume
357.1K
24h volume
87.6K
1w volume
178.3K
Open interest
169.3K
Liquidity
65.2K
Liquidity CLOB
65.2K
Start
Feb 12, 2026
End
Jun 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Feb 12, 2026
Event ID
206793
Slug
iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-june-30
Markets
1
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"context_description": "Recent US-Iran nuclear talks in Pakistan stalled after 21 hours without agreement, as the US demanded a 20-year suspension of all uranium enrichment and dismantling of key facilities, while Iran proposed only a five-year pause on nuclear activity. This impasse, following 2025 airstrikes that damaged Iran's enrichment sites, has left trader consensus evenly split at 50% for an agreement by June 30, reflecting Iran's weakened position amid IAEA concerns over hidden highly enriched uranium stockpiles and a new US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Tipping factors include potential follow-up diplomacy via Oman or Geneva, sanctions relief incentives, or escalation risks like further military action or IAEA censure, with historical patterns showing last-minute breakthroughs possible under pressure.",
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