Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Ticker

iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-june-30

Volume

369.3K

24h volume

98.8K

1w volume

190.5K

Open interest

176.6K

Liquidity

64.7K

Liquidity CLOB

64.7K

Start

Feb 12, 2026

End

Jun 30, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Feb 12, 2026

Event ID

206793

Slug

iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-june-30

Markets

1

Tags

TrumpGeopoliticsPoliticsNuclearMiddle EastWorldIranIran Ceasefire
Raw event data
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    "context_description": "Recent US-Iran indirect talks in Islamabad over the April 12-13 weekend concluded without agreement, as Iran rejected demands for a 20-year moratorium on uranium enrichment and dismantling of nuclear facilities, with Tehran's atomic energy chief ruling out any curbs five days ago. This stalemate amid a fragile ceasefire—holding since early April with no exchanges of fire—drives trader consensus to a slim 51% \"No,\" reflecting Iran's insistence on enrichment rights as a red line while the US pushes comprehensive limits tied to sanctions relief. The close contest stems from signals like Iran's April 8 indication of willingness to transfer enriched uranium stockpiles and potential for resumed diplomacy before the June 30 deadline. Escalation risks, positive IAEA verification, or breakthroughs in Oman-mediated channels could tip odds toward \"Yes\"; hardened positions or violations might solidify \"No.\"",
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