
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed extension to the halt in direct military engagement between Israel and Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both extensions of the April 16 ceasefire and new agreements scheduled to take effect before or at the initial agreement's scheduled end will be considered extensions of the ceasefire agreement, provided there is no period during which no ceasefire is in effect. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. An extension of the ceasefire agreement requires clear public confirmation from both the Israeli government and Hezbollah that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another for longer than the initially agreed 10-day period, or for an official extension of the ceasefire agreement in place to be otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed agreement on a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify. A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes a qualifying extension of the ceasefire agreement/halt in military hostilities. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly commit to extending the ceasefire, will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
Ticker
israel-x-hezbollah-ceasefire-extended-by
Volume
775.4K
24h volume
561.7K
1w volume
714.5K
Open interest
214.5K
Liquidity
35.7K
Liquidity CLOB
35.7K
Start
Apr 16, 2026
End
—
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Apr 16, 2026
Event ID
386730
Slug
israel-x-hezbollah-ceasefire-extended-by
Markets
2
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"context_description": "President Donald Trump announced on April 23 a three-week extension of the U.S.-brokered Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, originally set for 10 days starting April 16 amid the ongoing Hezbollah conflict that escalated in March. The truce has significantly reduced violence but faced mutual accusations of violations, including Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah targets and reported rocket fire from Lebanon. Washington-hosted direct talks highlighted Israel's demands for Hezbollah disarmament and a southern security zone, against Lebanon's push for full Israeli troop withdrawal and prisoner releases. Upcoming negotiations could shape longer-term de-escalation, though persistent tensions and Hezbollah's non-signatory status underscore fragility in this diplomatic window.",
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