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KY-04 Republican Primary Winner
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Ticker
ky-04-republican-primary-winner
Volume
404.0K
24h volume
27.3K
1w volume
83.1K
Open interest
200.8K
Liquidity
43.6K
Liquidity CLOB
43.6K
Start
Dec 1, 2025
End
May 19, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Dec 1, 2025
Event ID
95227
Slug
ky-04-republican-primary-winner
Markets
20
Raw event data
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"slug": "ky-04-republican-primary-winner",
"title": "KY-04 Republican Primary Winner",
"description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
"resolutionSource": "",
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"creationDate": "2025-12-01T22:00:58.422981Z",
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"active": true,
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"openInterest": 200830.356952,
"sortBy": "price",
"createdAt": "2025-12-01T20:01:34.987528Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-05-01T08:40:53.852645Z",
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"commentCount": 32,
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"question": "Will Nicole Lee Ethington be the Republican nominee for KY-04?",
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"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
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"liquidity": "0",
"startDate": "2025-12-01T21:56:01.473749Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ky-04-republican-primary-winner-1me1dCIzzosm.png",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ky-04-republican-primary-winner-1me1dCIzzosm.png",
"description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"volume": "0",
"active": false,
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"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2025-12-01T20:01:39.100515Z",
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"question": "Will Candidate D be the Republican nominee for KY-04?",
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"liquidity": "0",
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"question": "Will Candidate F be the Republican nominee for KY-04?",
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"context_description": "Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a commanding trader consensus at 74.5% implied probability to win Kentucky's 4th District Republican primary on May 19, driven by recent polls showing him ahead 47%-53% over challenger Ed Gallrein, including a Quantus Insights survey (April 6-7) with Massie at 47% to Gallrein's 37% and a Big Data Poll (April 3-7) at 52%-48% with leans. Massie's incumbency advantage, perfect conservative scorecard, and $2.5 million grassroots fundraising in Q1 bolster his position despite President Trump's endorsement of Gallrein and over $10 million in outside spending by allied PACs targeting Massie. Gallrein trails at 26.8% amid stronger support from older voters (65+), but skips key forums like Erlanger's. Fringe candidates Nicole Lee Ethington and Robert Wells Jr. register negligible support. Early voting trends and final debate momentum could shift the closely watched race testing Trump's GOP influence.",
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}- Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Vol 261.2KLiq 21.4KEnd May 19, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Vol 118.5KLiq 9.1KEnd May 19, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Nicole Lee Ethington be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Vol 17.7KLiq 8.8KEnd May 19, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Robert Wells Jr. be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Vol 6.7KLiq 3.9KEnd May 19, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Candidate B be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Vol 0Liq 0End May 19, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Candidate D be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Vol 0Liq 0End May 19, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Candidate F be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Vol 0Liq 0End May 19, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Candidate H be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Vol 0Liq 0End May 19, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Candidate J be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Vol 0Liq 0End May 19, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Candidate L be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Vol 0Liq 0End May 19, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Candidate N be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Vol 0Liq 0End May 19, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will another candidate be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Vol 0Liq 0End May 19, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Candidate A be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Vol 0Liq 0End May 19, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Candidate C be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Vol 0Liq 0End May 19, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Candidate E be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Vol 0Liq 0End May 19, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Candidate G be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Vol 0Liq 0End May 19, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Candidate I be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Vol 0Liq 0End May 19, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Candidate K be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Vol 0Liq 0End May 19, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Candidate M be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Vol 0Liq 0End May 19, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Candidate O be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Vol 0Liq 0End May 19, 2026OpenOrder book