
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases any new MAI model that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A “new MAI model” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family, including new base models or successors within that family. Any releases of task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar variants will count for this market. Products labeled as outside of the MAI family will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (microsoft.ai), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
new-mai-model-released-by
Volume
376.0K
24h volume
79.6K
1w volume
373.5K
Open interest
195.1K
Liquidity
337.8K
Liquidity CLOB
337.8K
Start
Apr 13, 2026
End
Jun 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Apr 13, 2026
Event ID
362036
Slug
new-mai-model-released-by
Markets
2
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"eventMetadata": {
"context_description": "Microsoft's surprise release of a new MAI model on April 30, 2026—publicly accessible via Azure AI Foundry—has solidified trader confidence in the company's rapid multimodal AI expansion, following the market's April 13 launch. This builds on earlier April announcements of MAI-Transcribe-1 (top transcription accuracy across 25 languages per FLEURS benchmark), MAI-Voice-1 for expressive speech synthesis, and MAI-Image-2 (top-three on LMSYS Arena), plus the efficient Image-2-Efficient variant. Led by CEO Mustafa Suleyman, the MAI family reduces OpenAI reliance, enhancing Azure's enterprise edge against Anthropic's Claude and Google's Gemini. Microsoft Build in May could preview further releases or benchmarks, amid regulatory focus on AI capabilities.",
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