Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

{
  "id": "326314",
  "ticker": "russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-may-31-2026",
  "slug": "russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-may-31-2026",
  "title": "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nIf the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes,\" regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.\n\nOnly ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.\n\nAny form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nA peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.",
  "resolutionSource": "",
  "startDate": "2026-03-31T20:06:21.691363Z",
  "creationDate": "2026-03-31T20:06:21.691358Z",
  "endDate": "2026-05-31T00:00:00Z",
  "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-july-GSNGh26whPic.jpg",
  "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-july-GSNGh26whPic.jpg",
  "active": true,
  "closed": false,
  "archived": false,
  "new": false,
  "featured": false,
  "restricted": true,
  "liquidity": 99914.79243,
  "volume": 395519.99823700055,
  "openInterest": 203117.797131,
  "createdAt": "2026-03-30T19:26:34.361806Z",
  "updatedAt": "2026-04-14T16:42:54.362347Z",
  "competitive": 0.835946362337607,
  "volume24hr": 80317.83631999999,
  "volume1wk": 334186.57217099995,
  "volume1mo": 395519.998237,
  "volume1yr": 395519.998237,
  "enableOrderBook": true,
  "liquidityClob": 99914.79243,
  "commentCount": 0,
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "1795527",
      "question": "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?",
      "conditionId": "0xa93b28a6384aefff4e7d5adb2061c444e4a0e95b8ad17755f9cee123c7099b35",
      "slug": "russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-may-31-2026",
      "resolutionSource": "",
      "endDate": "2026-05-31T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "99545.35095",
      "startDate": "2026-03-31T20:03:10.489Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-july-GSNGh26whPic.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-july-GSNGh26whPic.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nIf the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes,\" regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.\n\nOnly ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.\n\nAny form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nA peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.0585\", \"0.9415\"]",
      "volume": "395893.89639000053",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2026-03-30T19:26:34.733941Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-14T16:44:02.859963Z",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "",
      "groupItemThreshold": "0",
      "questionID": "0xf5329d2aab62b54a7066b9768e8c47a02e108915a29c7f794d867686d911d559",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "volumeNum": 395893.89639000053,
      "liquidityNum": 99545.35095,
      "endDateIso": "2026-05-31",
      "startDateIso": "2026-03-31",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 80691.73447299999,
      "volume1wk": 334560.47032399994,
      "volume1mo": 395893.89639,
      "volume1yr": 395893.89639,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"79574854225464477884287524461980167393583915155475895540399834902850789709576\", \"50296805114160040515244790354604025333522925214556059510952704423495419940434\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume24hrClob": 80691.73447299999,
      "volume1wkClob": 334560.47032399994,
      "volume1moClob": 395893.89639,
      "volume1yrClob": 395893.89639,
      "volumeClob": 395893.89639000053,
      "liquidityClob": 99545.35095,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-03-31T20:02:05Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0.8368745330501629,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "clobRewards": [
        {
          "id": "123182",
          "conditionId": "0xa93b28a6384aefff4e7d5adb2061c444e4a0e95b8ad17755f9cee123c7099b35",
          "assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
          "rewardsAmount": 0,
          "rewardsDailyRate": 10,
          "startDate": "2026-04-01",
          "endDate": "2500-12-31"
        }
      ],
      "rewardsMinSize": 100,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
      "spread": 0.003,
      "oneDayPriceChange": -0.001,
      "oneHourPriceChange": 0.0015,
      "oneWeekPriceChange": 0.025,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.06,
      "bestBid": 0.057,
      "bestAsk": 0.06,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-31T20:00:49.98194Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    }
  ],
  "series": [
    {
      "id": "10058",
      "ticker": "russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire",
      "slug": "russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire",
      "title": "Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire",
      "seriesType": "single",
      "recurrence": "",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-trump-issue-an-executive-order-on-february-14-IRIODX3MAqwP.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-february-yNd2eOKrgBfO.jpg",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "archived": false,
      "featured": false,
      "restricted": true,
      "createdAt": "2025-03-13T05:04:52.248289Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-14T16:40:54.098679Z",
      "volume24hr": 494406.06777600007,
      "volume": 27104877.800861962,
      "liquidity": 1416691.49024,
      "commentCount": 12365,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "126",
      "label": "Trump",
      "slug": "trump",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:23:16.384+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:23:16.39Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:19:01.330974Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "270",
      "label": "putin",
      "slug": "putin",
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:46:19.507+00",
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:46:19.528Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:29:44.08742Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "103027",
      "label": "Ukraine Peace Deal",
      "slug": "ukraine-peace-deal",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2025-12-28T23:09:02.833617Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-12T15:58:00.37324Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "100265",
      "label": "Geopolitics",
      "slug": "geopolitics",
      "forceShow": true,
      "createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:29:03.520452Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "102498",
      "label": "Trump-Zelenskyy",
      "slug": "trump-zelenskyy",
      "createdAt": "2025-08-16T20:50:50.502628Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:06.779194Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "96",
      "label": "Ukraine",
      "slug": "ukraine",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:18:49.922+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:18:49.94Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:22:22.039982Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "cyom": false,
  "showAllOutcomes": true,
  "showMarketImages": true,
  "enableNegRisk": false,
  "automaticallyActive": true,
  "seriesSlug": "russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire",
  "negRiskAugmented": false,
  "pendingDeployment": false,
  "deploying": false,
  "requiresTranslation": false,
  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "The collapse of a short-lived 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire on April 11-12, marked by mutual accusations of thousands of violations from both Russian and Ukrainian forces, underscores the absence of diplomatic momentum driving Polymarket traders' 94.3% consensus against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31. Ongoing Russian offensives in areas like northern Sumy Oblast and Ukrainian counteractions, including drone strikes on Russian infrastructure, signal persistent escalation rather than de-escalation. Zelenskyy's prior truce offers via US mediators were rebuffed by Moscow as premature, with no substantive peace talks resuming amid stalled frontlines and high casualties. While sudden multilateral diplomacy or battlefield shifts could alter odds, current military stalemate and rejection of unconditional halts reinforce trader skepticism for resolution within the next six weeks.",
    "context_requires_regen": true,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-14T16:37:36.771Z"
  }
}