
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms that the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Iranian opposition groups by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered. “Iranian opposition groups” refers to organized political, paramilitary, insurgent, or resistance groups that publicly oppose the current government of the Islamic Republic of Iran and seek to alter, replace, or overthrow it. This includes groups operating inside or outside Iran that claim to represent opposition to the current governing authorities. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ticker
us-announces-military-support-of-iran-oppostion-by-march-31
Volume
449.5K
24h volume
2.9K
1w volume
133.2K
Open interest
27.0K
Liquidity
32.8K
Liquidity CLOB
32.8K
Start
Mar 3, 2026
End
Apr 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 3, 2026
Event ID
244329
Slug
us-announces-military-support-of-iran-oppostion-by-march-31
Markets
2
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"context_description": "Amid the 2026 Iran war—sparked by US-Israel airstrikes on February 28 that degraded Iran's military infrastructure and targeted leadership—no official US announcement of military support for Iranian opposition groups, such as protesting civilians or defecting army elements, has materialized by April 14. Direct US actions, including a recently enforced naval blockade of Iranian ports, reflect escalation over proxy backing, while Iran rejected a US 15-point ceasefire proposal and counteroffered amid Islamabad mediation on April 10. Polling indicates majority American opposition to ground troops, a likely barrier to opposition aid, as diplomatic talks and potential de-escalation loom before late-April deadlines. Trader consensus views announcement odds as low absent regime collapse signals.",
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