
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms that the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Iranian opposition groups by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered. “Iranian opposition groups” refers to organized political, paramilitary, insurgent, or resistance groups that publicly oppose the current government of the Islamic Republic of Iran and seek to alter, replace, or overthrow it. This includes groups operating inside or outside Iran that claim to represent opposition to the current governing authorities. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ticker
us-announces-military-support-of-iran-oppostion-by-march-31
Volume
313.3K
24h volume
23.9K
1w volume
78.1K
Open interest
34.3K
Liquidity
13.6K
Liquidity CLOB
13.6K
Start
Mar 3, 2026
End
Apr 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 3, 2026
Event ID
244329
Slug
us-announces-military-support-of-iran-oppostion-by-march-31
Markets
2
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"context_description": "President Trump's April 6 press conference remarks, in which he disclosed US arms shipments to intermediaries intended for Iranian protesters during December-January demonstrations but claimed they were diverted, mark the most direct public reference to support for opposition elements amid the five-week US-Iran war. Lacking a formal White House or Pentagon announcement of structured military aid, trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities for near-term declarations, prioritizing airstrikes over overt backing. Iran's rejection of ceasefire proposals heightens escalation risks ahead of Trump's April 7 Strait of Hormuz deadline, with potential infrastructure strikes by April 8; Reza Pahlavi's mid-March insurgency appeals provide context but face diplomatic and congressional hurdles to realization.",
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