US announces military support of Iran opposition by...?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms that the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Iranian opposition groups by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered. “Iranian opposition groups” refers to organized political, paramilitary, insurgent, or resistance groups that publicly oppose the current government of the Islamic Republic of Iran and seek to alter, replace, or overthrow it. This includes groups operating inside or outside Iran that claim to represent opposition to the current governing authorities. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Ticker

us-announces-military-support-of-iran-oppostion-by-march-31

Volume

313.3K

24h volume

23.0K

1w volume

78.1K

Open interest

34.3K

Liquidity

22.6K

Liquidity CLOB

22.6K

Start

Mar 3, 2026

End

Apr 30, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 3, 2026

Event ID

244329

Slug

us-announces-military-support-of-iran-oppostion-by-march-31

Markets

2

Raw event data
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  "title": "US announces military support of Iran opposition by...?",
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    "context_description": "Amid escalating US military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, missile facilities, and the Strait of Hormuz campaign since late February 2026, reports emerged in early March of CIA discussions with Iraq-based Kurdish opposition groups about arming them to spark internal unrest, though the White House has not confirmed any such plans publicly. Polling shows broad American disapproval of further escalation, with 54-59% opposing ongoing operations and fearing prolonged involvement. Iran rejected a US 15-point peace proposal as unreasonable on March 25, while direct airstrikes continue without announced proxy support. Traders monitor potential regime pressure points, congressional briefings, and diplomatic talks that could prompt an opposition aid announcement before April deadlines.",
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