U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?

Name: U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
Start: 2026-03-16T18:16:32.658932Z
End: 2026-04-30T00:00:00Z
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
Ticker
us-anti-cartel-operation-outside-of-the-us-by
Volume
505.4K
24h volume
384.9K
1w volume
394.9K
Open interest
201.6K
Liquidity
242.5K
Liquidity CLOB
242.5K
Start
Mar 16, 2026
End
Apr 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 16, 2026
Event ID
276630
Slug
us-anti-cartel-operation-outside-of-the-us-by
Markets
Tags
Politics mencho Mexico Mexico Cartel War Geopolitics
Raw event data
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    "context_description": "The April 19 Chihuahua meth lab raid, where two CIA officers died alongside Mexican officials in a post-operation vehicle crash, has driven intense trader scrutiny over potential direct U.S. ground participation in anti-cartel actions on foreign soil, but Mexican authorities insist roles were strictly advisory without operational interaction. President Claudia Sheinbaum's April 27 warning against repeating such involvement underscores Mexico's sovereignty sensitivities amid the Trump administration's Americas Counter Cartel Coalition, launched in March with 17 nations to dismantle narco-trafficking networks. No qualifying kinetic strike or confirmed on-the-ground U.S. agency action—excluding intelligence or support roles—has occurred by the April 30 deadline, with 2026 World Cup co-hosting security pressures as a key upcoming factor that could shift dynamics.",
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Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by June 30, 2026?
Vol 54.3KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?
Vol 409.0KLiq 241.8KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by March 31, 2026?
Vol 42.1KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed