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Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/). This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum. If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum. If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”. If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”. If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”. This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
Ticker
virginia-redistricting-referendum-margin-of-victory
Volume
429.5K
24h volume
128.1K
1w volume
383.1K
Open interest
126.8K
Liquidity
44.7K
Liquidity CLOB
44.7K
Start
Apr 7, 2026
End
Apr 21, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Apr 7, 2026
Event ID
351801
Slug
virginia-redistricting-referendum-margin-of-victory
Markets
7
Tags
Raw event data
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"createdAt": "2023-11-06T16:18:54.639Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:21:14.162711Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
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"showAllOutcomes": true,
"showMarketImages": false,
"enableNegRisk": true,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"startTime": "2026-04-21T17:00:00Z",
"gmpChartMode": "default",
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"countryName": "Virginia",
"electionType": "Referendum",
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"deployingTimestamp": "2026-04-07T22:27:48.137004Z",
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"eventMetadata": {
"context_description": "Virginia voters narrowly approved the constitutional amendment allowing the Democratic-controlled legislature to redraw congressional district maps ahead of the 2026 midterms in the April 21 special election, with early results and projections from NYT (Yes +3.4%) and Decision Desk HQ showing a 3-5% Yes margin that aligns with Polymarket's 96% trader consensus on a 3-6% pass. Pre-election polls, including WaPo/Scharr (52-47 likely voters) and CNU Wason (51-43), accurately forecasted the tight outcome despite elevated Republican turnout in rural areas opposing the bypass of the bipartisan redistricting commission. Democrats' substantial funding edge overwhelmed GOP grassroots mobilization in this low-turnout April contest. Final tallies of absentee and provisional ballots, potential recounts if the margin dips below 1%, or pending Republican legal challenges to the process could still narrow or expand the victory margin.",
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"context_updated_at": "2026-04-23T03:19:49.436Z"
}
}- Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%?Vol 118.2KLiq 17.4KEnd Apr 21, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by less than 3%?Vol 129.3KLiq 15.7KEnd Apr 21, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 6-9%?Vol 58.0KLiq 5.3KEnd Apr 21, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 9-12%?Vol 43.0KLiq 5.5KEnd Apr 21, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum fail to pass?Vol 41.3KLiq —End Apr 21, 2026Closed
- Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 12-15%?Vol 22.3KLiq —End Apr 21, 2026Closed
- Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 15%+?Vol 17.4KLiq —End Apr 21, 2026Closed