Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

{
  "id": "73213",
  "ticker": "will-a-province-schedule-a-referendum-to-leave-canada-before-2027",
  "slug": "will-a-province-schedule-a-referendum-to-leave-canada-before-2027",
  "title": "Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nAny referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
  "resolutionSource": "",
  "startDate": "2025-11-05T19:30:51.779911Z",
  "creationDate": "2025-11-05T19:30:51.779908Z",
  "endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
  "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-a-province-schedule-a-referendum-to-leave-canada-in-2025-WCgHlWmtkYVe.jpg",
  "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-a-province-schedule-a-referendum-to-leave-canada-in-2025-WCgHlWmtkYVe.jpg",
  "active": true,
  "closed": false,
  "archived": false,
  "new": false,
  "featured": false,
  "restricted": true,
  "liquidity": 43406.2648,
  "volume": 311611.4935929984,
  "openInterest": 120663.613932,
  "createdAt": "2025-11-04T22:12:35.056688Z",
  "updatedAt": "2026-04-07T11:55:59.296231Z",
  "competitive": 0.9296920395119117,
  "volume24hr": 6594.618305,
  "volume1wk": 161576.78029200004,
  "volume1mo": 238609.16883600055,
  "volume1yr": 311611.4935930007,
  "enableOrderBook": true,
  "liquidityClob": 43406.2648,
  "commentCount": 0,
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "665502",
      "question": "Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?",
      "conditionId": "0x006e3bc30b325c9cd4e4a35e33738e7f49634dc353f8495303d511b875d8ad5b",
      "slug": "will-a-province-schedule-a-referendum-to-leave-canada-before-2027",
      "resolutionSource": "",
      "endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "42669.4686",
      "startDate": "2025-11-05T19:25:15.364Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-a-province-schedule-a-referendum-to-leave-canada-in-2025-WCgHlWmtkYVe.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-a-province-schedule-a-referendum-to-leave-canada-in-2025-WCgHlWmtkYVe.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nAny referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.775\", \"0.225\"]",
      "volume": "311611.4935929984",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2025-11-04T22:12:35.651689Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-07T11:55:18.45553Z",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "",
      "groupItemThreshold": "0",
      "questionID": "0x9fa148f5b5ae4a1b4bfbd71006375956354afdb69fb2a55a3a284cbc1b02712f",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "volumeNum": 311611.4935929984,
      "liquidityNum": 42669.4686,
      "endDateIso": "2026-12-31",
      "startDateIso": "2025-11-05",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 6594.618305,
      "volume1wk": 161556.78029200004,
      "volume1mo": 238609.16883600055,
      "volume1yr": 311611.4935930007,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"82192875338543444321050059158489019675098254652958667767854340749139444164787\", \"104843058660950376380723861571450239193841790194474890622661228053834376067728\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume24hrClob": 6594.618305,
      "volume1wkClob": 161556.78029200004,
      "volume1moClob": 238609.16883600055,
      "volume1yrClob": 311611.4935930007,
      "volumeClob": 311611.4935929984,
      "liquidityClob": 42669.4686,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2025-11-05T19:24:53Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0.9296920395119117,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "clobRewards": [
        {
          "id": "96964",
          "conditionId": "0x006e3bc30b325c9cd4e4a35e33738e7f49634dc353f8495303d511b875d8ad5b",
          "assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
          "rewardsAmount": 0,
          "rewardsDailyRate": 20,
          "startDate": "2026-03-09",
          "endDate": "2500-12-31"
        }
      ],
      "rewardsMinSize": 50,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
      "spread": 0.01,
      "oneDayPriceChange": 0.03,
      "oneHourPriceChange": 0.005,
      "oneWeekPriceChange": 0.2,
      "oneMonthPriceChange": 0.165,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.76,
      "bestBid": 0.77,
      "bestAsk": 0.78,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2025-11-05T19:24:27.308774Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    }
  ],
  "series": [
    {
      "id": "10568",
      "ticker": "canadian-secession-referendum",
      "slug": "canadian-secession-referendum",
      "title": "Canadian Secession Referendum",
      "seriesType": "single",
      "recurrence": "annual",
      "image": "",
      "icon": "",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "archived": false,
      "featured": false,
      "restricted": true,
      "createdAt": "2025-11-05T20:33:07.580721Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-07T11:56:08.644826Z",
      "volume24hr": 6594.618305,
      "volume": 311611.4935929984,
      "liquidity": 43406.2648,
      "commentCount": 118,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "245",
      "label": "Canada",
      "slug": "canada",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:42:24.942+00",
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:42:24.949Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:29:03.550256Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "2",
      "label": "Politics",
      "slug": "politics",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
      "updatedBy": 13,
      "createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:26.76623Z",
      "forceHide": true,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "101970",
      "label": "World",
      "slug": "world",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2025-03-19T23:36:08.498099Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:25:02.420693Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "100265",
      "label": "Geopolitics",
      "slug": "geopolitics",
      "forceShow": true,
      "createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:29:03.520452Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "cyom": false,
  "showAllOutcomes": true,
  "showMarketImages": true,
  "enableNegRisk": false,
  "automaticallyActive": true,
  "seriesSlug": "canadian-secession-referendum",
  "negRiskAugmented": false,
  "cumulativeMarkets": false,
  "pendingDeployment": false,
  "deploying": false,
  "requiresTranslation": false,
  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Trader consensus prices \"Yes\" at 77.5% for a Canadian province scheduling an independence referendum before 2027, driven by escalating separatist activism in Alberta and Saskatchewan amid chronic federal-provincial tensions over energy policy, carbon taxes, and equalization payments. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith's longstanding support for citizen-led referendums, as expressed in prior public statements, combined with high-profile grassroots campaigns like Rise of Alberta's viral advocacy and Saskatchewan's Prosperity Project town halls (late 2025) and separation petitions, has fueled market optimism despite governments' official opposition. Recent polls show independence support at 25-30%, but procedural paths via petitions appear viable; First Nations challenges and low turnout risks loom as counterweights ahead of potential legislative action.",
    "context_requires_regen": false,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-07T11:05:00.331Z"
  }
}