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Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Ticker
will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31
Volume
1.6M
24h volume
2.0K
1w volume
43.6K
Open interest
20.3K
Liquidity
15.2K
Liquidity CLOB
15.2K
Start
Jul 30, 2025
End
Jun 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jul 30, 2025
Event ID
34889
Slug
will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31
Markets
5
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Hamas's armed wing rejected disarmament demands on April 5, 2026, insisting mediators secure Israel's full Gaza withdrawal and first-phase ceasefire obligations before any talks, stalling phase-two negotiations under the October 2025 truce. US envoys, via President Trump's Board of Peace, have pressed for complete Hamas decommissioning and handover in exchange for reconstruction aid, but the group views it as premature amid ongoing Israeli operations. Cairo-mediated discussions continue amid fragile calm, with potential escalation risks if deadlines pass without progress; traders weigh Hamas's firm preconditions against diplomatic pressures from Qatar, Egypt, and Washington. No verified agreement has emerged in the past 30 days, underscoring entrenched positions on Gaza governance and security.",
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}- Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?Vol 26.3KLiq 15.1KEnd Jun 30, 2026OpenOrder book
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