
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Ticker
will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31
Volume
1.6M
24h volume
2.4K
1w volume
44.1K
Open interest
20.4K
Liquidity
13.3K
Liquidity CLOB
13.3K
Start
Jul 30, 2025
End
Jun 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jul 30, 2025
Event ID
34889
Slug
will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31
Markets
5
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Hamas's armed wing rejected disarmament discussions on April 5, deeming them unacceptable until Israel fully implements phase one of the US-brokered ceasefire—including complete Gaza withdrawal—amid stalled Cairo talks. This echoes Hamas's prior stance against a March 27 Trump Board of Peace proposal for staged eight-month disarmament, tunnel destruction, and reconstruction, which Israel conditions on weapons handover first. Ongoing mediation by Qatar and Egypt highlights sequencing disputes, hostage releases, and governance transitions as key barriers, with trader consensus reflecting low near-term odds amid fragile truce and escalation risks ahead of potential phase-two negotiations.",
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}- Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?Vol 26.8KLiq 13.4KEnd Jun 30, 2026OpenOrder book
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