
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Rodynske, Donetsk Oblast, (48.351541° N, 37.210747° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Ticker
will-ukraine-re-enter-rodynske-by-april-30
Volume
464.8K
24h volume
166.0K
1w volume
238.2K
Open interest
48.8K
Liquidity
—
Start
Mar 23, 2026
End
May 31, 2026
Status
Closed
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 23, 2026
Event ID
300596
Slug
will-ukraine-re-enter-rodynske-by-april-30
Markets
2
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"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Rodynske, Donetsk Oblast, (48.351541° N, 37.210747° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either \"Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours\", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify. \n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
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"tags": [
{
"id": "100265",
"label": "Geopolitics",
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{
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"context_description": "Ukrainian forces confirmed presence in western Rodynske via geolocated Russian drone footage on April 25, sustaining positions amid relentless Russian assaults in the Pokrovsk sector of Donetsk Oblast, where the town serves as a critical logistics hub north of Pokrovsk. This follows Ukraine's re-entry into parts of Rodynske around April 8, after Russian advances eroded control since late 2025, with DeepState reporting incremental Russian gains near the settlement on April 24. Ongoing clashes, including 40+ daily engagements nearby, reflect intensified fighting, but persistent Ukrainian territorial shading on ISW maps—required for market resolution by April 30—bolsters trader consensus on re-capture. Next ISW updates and frontline shifts could sway outcomes before the deadline.",
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