Another US Joint Chiefs of Staff member out by April 30?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting member of the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff ceases to hold their respective position on the Joint Chiefs of Staff for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Positions on the Joint Chiefs of Staff include: Chairman, Vice Chairman, Chief of Staff of the Army, Commandant of the Marine Corps, Chief of Naval Operations, Chief of Staff of the Air Force, Chief of Space Operations, and Chief of the National Guard Bureau. Sitting members include only formally appointed members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff who have assumed their position. If an individual is formally appointed to one of the above positions and assumes office during this market’s timeframe, that individual will thereafter be considered a sitting member. Any acting, interim, or temporary holder of a position on the Joint Chiefs of Staff does not qualify, unless they are subsequently formally appointed and assume the position. An announcement of a sitting member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If a sitting member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Ticker

another-us-joint-chiefs-of-staff-member-out-by-april-30

Volume

1.5K

24h volume

773

1w volume

1.5K

Open interest

966

Liquidity

6.3K

Liquidity CLOB

6.3K

Start

Apr 3, 2026

End

Apr 30, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Apr 3, 2026

Event ID

341166

Slug

another-us-joint-chiefs-of-staff-member-out-by-april-30

Markets

1

Tags

PoliticsTrumpgeneralArmyHegsethmilitaryGeopolitics
Raw event data
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  "title": "Another US Joint Chiefs of Staff member out by April 30?",
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      "label": "Politics",
      "slug": "politics",
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      "publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
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  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's ouster of Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George on April 2—framed as an immediate retirement—represents the most recent Joint Chiefs departure amid a broader Pentagon leadership reshuffle that has already claimed prior members like former Chairman Gen. C.Q. Brown and Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Lisa Franchetti. With no reports of internal discord or additional resignations in the past week, and current Chairman Gen. Dan Caine actively briefing Congress on Iran operations, traders reflect an 82.5% implied probability against another exit by April 30, citing stabilized command structure and focus on wartime priorities over further changes. Senate confirmation hearings for replacements could influence dynamics, but historical patterns suggest post-purge continuity.",
    "context_requires_regen": true,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-08T00:59:17.964Z"
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