Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).

Ticker

hungary-election-tisza-wins-a-constitutional-majority

Volume

419.3K

24h volume

337.6K

1w volume

388.5K

Open interest

192.9K

Liquidity

22.0K

Liquidity CLOB

22.0K

Start

Mar 31, 2026

End

Apr 12, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 31, 2026

Event ID

326476

Slug

hungary-election-tisza-wins-a-constitutional-majority

Markets

1

Raw event data
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  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "In Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, partial results with over 90% of votes counted show TISZA, led by Péter Magyar, securing 135-138 seats in the 199-seat National Assembly—exceeding the 133 required for a constitutional supermajority under the mixed-member proportional system. Viktor Orbán's Fidesz conceded defeat amid record turnout and pre-election polls like Medián projecting TISZA's dominance after months of surging support against incumbency fatigue. Trader consensus at 98% Yes reflects this decisive margin, with final certification pending but unlikely to shift absent extraordinary recounts, legal challenges, or ballot disputes in remaining rural strongholds.",
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