Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Ticker

iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-april-30

Volume

372.8K

24h volume

149.6K

1w volume

201.4K

Open interest

199.0K

Liquidity

39.2K

Liquidity CLOB

39.2K

Start

Mar 6, 2026

End

Apr 30, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 6, 2026

Event ID

250112

Slug

iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-april-30

Markets

1

Tags

TrumpGeopoliticsIranMiddle EastNuclearPoliticsIran Ceasefire
Raw event data
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    "context_description": "Trader consensus prices \"No\" at 88% for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30, reflecting stalled US-Iran nuclear talks and Tehran's firm insistence on its right to enrich. Indirect Geneva negotiations in late February 2026 ended without deal, as Iran offered only temporary suspensions of three to seven years while rejecting permanent halts or stockpile removal demanded by Washington. The IAEA's February 27 report confirmed inability to verify suspension of enrichment activities, amid Iran's 440+ kg stockpile of 60%-enriched uranium—a short step from weapons-grade. No diplomatic breakthroughs in the past 30 days, with US officials reiterating demands as recently as April 6, underscore significant barriers despite occasional compromise signals.",
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