Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?

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  "description": "This market will resolve to \"Leadership Change\" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran. \n\nThis market will resolve to “Ceasefire” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran.\n\nIf neither occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.\n\nMojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.\n\nAn official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify, regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.\n\nAn “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.\n\nIf the agreement is officially reached before Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran, this will qualify, regardless of when the ceasefire officially takes effect.\n\nAny form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nA broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.\n\nThis market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.",
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    "context_description": "US President Donald Trump announced a two-week US-Iran ceasefire effective immediately, brokered by Pakistan just hours ago, committing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for shipping amid escalating military tensions and airstrikes. This breakthrough, hailed globally and paving the way for Islamabad talks on April 10, has driven trader consensus to 100% implied probability that the truce precedes any Iran leadership change, reflecting the wisdom of crowds on verified diplomatic progress over internal power shifts. Despite Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in early March US-Israeli strikes and his son Mojtaba's swift succession as new leader, no subsequent instability has emerged to challenge the ceasefire's precedence. Realistic shifts could arise from truce violations, proxy escalations like Hezbollah actions, or sudden health events in Iran's post-transition leadership.",
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