Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

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    "context_description": "Ongoing border clashes between Israel and Hezbollah, including recent Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon, have eroded a fragile ceasefire and heightened tensions, driving trader consensus toward an 83% implied probability against normalization before 2027. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu authorized direct talks with Lebanon this week, hosted by the U.S. in Washington, focusing on Hezbollah disarmament and border demarcation rather than full diplomatic ties, but Israel rejected preconditions like a truce beforehand. Lebanon's Hezbollah influence, codified anti-normalization laws, and March escalations—including Israeli buffer zone plans—reinforce doubts, with no breakthroughs despite a French proposal for recognition and demilitarization. Upcoming negotiations face steep hurdles from unresolved security disputes.",
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