Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count. A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing. Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify. Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Ticker

israeli-forces-cross-the-litani-river-by-june-30

Volume

332.7K

24h volume

8.7K

1w volume

156.7K

Open interest

64.9K

Liquidity

16.8K

Liquidity CLOB

16.8K

Start

Mar 17, 2026

End

Jun 30, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 17, 2026

Event ID

281153

Slug

israeli-forces-cross-the-litani-river-by-june-30

Markets

1

Raw event data
{
  "id": "281153",
  "ticker": "israeli-forces-cross-the-litani-river-by-june-30",
  "slug": "israeli-forces-cross-the-litani-river-by-june-30",
  "title": "Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.\n\nA “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.\n\nAerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.\n\nMere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
  "resolutionSource": "",
  "startDate": "2026-03-17T23:53:51.145135Z",
  "creationDate": "2026-03-17T23:53:51.14513Z",
  "endDate": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
  "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israeli-forces-cross-the-litani-river-by-june-30-sIcSMCZv9nD6.jpg",
  "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israeli-forces-cross-the-litani-river-by-june-30-sIcSMCZv9nD6.jpg",
  "active": true,
  "closed": false,
  "archived": false,
  "new": false,
  "featured": false,
  "restricted": true,
  "liquidity": 16774.0151,
  "volume": 332725.7876360005,
  "openInterest": 64878.845548,
  "createdAt": "2026-03-17T23:27:54.853608Z",
  "updatedAt": "2026-04-13T09:15:56.413047Z",
  "competitive": 0.9807767752059631,
  "volume24hr": 8658.644312999999,
  "volume1wk": 156732.51939600002,
  "volume1mo": 332725.7876360004,
  "volume1yr": 332725.7876360004,
  "enableOrderBook": true,
  "liquidityClob": 16774.0151,
  "commentCount": 41,
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "1633619",
      "question": "Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?",
      "conditionId": "0x9049d96597900ba0f3013604dc7adc3dd6e7e4764c5a0c16318605c40ac1ee96",
      "slug": "israeli-forces-cross-the-litani-river-by-june-30",
      "resolutionSource": "",
      "endDate": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "16565.2335",
      "startDate": "2026-03-17T23:52:20.508609Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israeli-forces-cross-the-litani-river-by-june-30-sIcSMCZv9nD6.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israeli-forces-cross-the-litani-river-by-june-30-sIcSMCZv9nD6.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.\n\nA “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.\n\nAerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.\n\nMere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.36\", \"0.64\"]",
      "volume": "332725.7876360005",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2026-03-17T23:27:55.876636Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-13T09:17:30.263169Z",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "",
      "groupItemThreshold": "0",
      "questionID": "0xc7ee7d4d8a575e647e922a76e71dbabf789c999145cabefe1a5d9ddf80af6b51",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "volumeNum": 332725.7876360005,
      "liquidityNum": 16565.2335,
      "endDateIso": "2026-06-30",
      "startDateIso": "2026-03-17",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 8658.644312999999,
      "volume1wk": 156732.51939600002,
      "volume1mo": 332725.7876360004,
      "volume1yr": 332725.7876360004,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"58378221740659411313178655679325260617840697873464081595286158122173302972267\", \"61105898512331423456932766287679410148969111620575334880263459667275737814007\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume24hrClob": 8658.644312999999,
      "volume1wkClob": 156732.51939600002,
      "volume1moClob": 332725.7876360004,
      "volume1yrClob": 332725.7876360004,
      "volumeClob": 332725.7876360005,
      "liquidityClob": 16565.2335,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-03-17T23:51:15Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0.9807767752059631,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "clobRewards": [
        {
          "id": "105479",
          "conditionId": "0x9049d96597900ba0f3013604dc7adc3dd6e7e4764c5a0c16318605c40ac1ee96",
          "assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
          "rewardsAmount": 0,
          "rewardsDailyRate": 50,
          "startDate": "2026-03-18",
          "endDate": "2500-12-31"
        }
      ],
      "rewardsMinSize": 200,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
      "spread": 0.02,
      "oneDayPriceChange": 0.01,
      "oneWeekPriceChange": -0.085,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.37,
      "bestBid": 0.35,
      "bestAsk": 0.37,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-17T23:50:02.079695Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "78",
      "label": "Iran",
      "slug": "iran",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:16:51.647+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:16:51.667Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:31:04.117508Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "104064",
      "label": "Israel x Iran",
      "slug": "israel-x-iran",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2026-03-03T03:22:41.390984Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:30:24.067082Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "100265",
      "label": "Geopolitics",
      "slug": "geopolitics",
      "forceShow": true,
      "createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:29:03.520452Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "104009",
      "label": "Regional Spillover",
      "slug": "regional-spillover",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2026-03-02T19:56:34.326195Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:27:43.321334Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "180",
      "label": "Israel",
      "slug": "israel",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:31:07.39+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:31:07.395Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:27:02.801468Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "297",
      "label": "Hezbollah",
      "slug": "hezbollah",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:51:25.665+00",
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:51:25.672Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:23:22.255644Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "104257",
      "label": "IDF",
      "slug": "idf",
      "createdAt": "2026-03-17T23:27:55.244444Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-17T23:30:07.515218Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "849",
      "label": "Lebanon",
      "slug": "lebanon",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2024-01-09 20:34:03.181+00",
      "createdAt": "2024-01-09T20:34:03.207Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:25:22.686201Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "cyom": false,
  "showAllOutcomes": true,
  "showMarketImages": true,
  "enableNegRisk": false,
  "automaticallyActive": true,
  "negRiskAugmented": false,
  "pendingDeployment": false,
  "deploying": false,
  "requiresTranslation": false,
  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Despite Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz's March announcements signaling intent to seize southern Lebanon up to the Litani River as a security buffer zone, trader consensus favors no crossing by June 30 at 64%, driven by Hezbollah's fierce resistance. Recent Hezbollah ambushes near al-Taybeh and the Taybeh-Qantara axis, including one on April 6 that wounded dozens of IDF soldiers and forced withdrawals, have disrupted ground advances, as reported by Israeli media. The IDF has instead prioritized airstrikes on seven Litani River bridges since March, targeting Hezbollah reinforcements without confirmed crossings. With ongoing clashes and no major escalation in the past week, traders assess significant barriers to a full push amid high casualties.",
    "context_requires_regen": false,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-13T09:06:00.448Z"
  }
}