
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count. A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing. Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify. Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
israeli-forces-cross-the-litani-river-by-june-30
Volume
332.7K
24h volume
8.7K
1w volume
156.7K
Open interest
64.9K
Liquidity
16.8K
Liquidity CLOB
16.8K
Start
Mar 17, 2026
End
Jun 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 17, 2026
Event ID
281153
Slug
israeli-forces-cross-the-litani-river-by-june-30
Markets
1
Raw event data
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"title": "Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?",
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"context_description": "Despite Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz's March announcements signaling intent to seize southern Lebanon up to the Litani River as a security buffer zone, trader consensus favors no crossing by June 30 at 64%, driven by Hezbollah's fierce resistance. Recent Hezbollah ambushes near al-Taybeh and the Taybeh-Qantara axis, including one on April 6 that wounded dozens of IDF soldiers and forced withdrawals, have disrupted ground advances, as reported by Israeli media. The IDF has instead prioritized airstrikes on seven Litani River bridges since March, targeting Hezbollah reinforcements without confirmed crossings. With ongoing clashes and no major escalation in the past week, traders assess significant barriers to a full push amid high casualties.",
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}- Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?Vol 332.7KLiq 16.6KEnd Jun 30, 2026OpenOrder book