Nothing Ever Happens: April

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    "context_description": "Trader consensus prices \"Nothing\" at 69.5% for no major triggering events by April 30, reflecting the absence of US forces entering Iran, WTI crude surpassing $200 per barrel, Federal Reserve policy changes, US military action against Cuba, or arrests stemming from Epstein disclosures through April 12. A US-Iran two-week ceasefire agreed April 7 has de-escalated ground invasion risks despite prior F-15 incidents and Kharg Island strikes, while oil prices plunged to around $96 after early-month highs near $114. No DOJ prosecutions from recent Epstein file releases, and Cuban rhetoric remains short of action. The April 28-29 FOMC meeting looms as the primary catalyst, though markets imply steady rates amid stable inflation data.",
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    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-12T02:56:36.500Z"
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