Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

Pluto is currently classified as a dwarf planet by the International Astronomical Union. NASA administrator Jared Isaacman has urged Donald Trump to declare Pluto a planet again. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pluto is declared a planet by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying declaration may be made by the International Astronomical Union or by Donald Trump, but must explicitly state that Pluto's status is that of a planet. Statements reinforcing Pluto's dwarf planet status or statements indicating that its classification may be reconsidered will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Statements indicating intent to reclassify Pluto as a planet will count towards this market's resolution only if they are made without qualifiers (e.g., "Pluto will be reclassified as a planet if it sufficiently clears its orbit" would not count). Executive orders declaring Pluto's status as a planet will qualify. This market's resolution source will be statements from the International Astronomical Union, Donald Trump, or any official White House legal or social media representative will qualify.

Ticker

pluto-reclassified-as-a-planet-by-june-30

Volume

10.0K

24h volume

1.3K

1w volume

10.0K

Open interest

3.7K

Liquidity

31.3K

Liquidity CLOB

31.3K

Start

Apr 9, 2026

End

Jun 30, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Apr 9, 2026

Event ID

361798

Slug

pluto-reclassified-as-a-planet-by-june-30

Markets

1

Raw event data
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    "context_description": "Trader consensus strongly favors \"No\" at 92.5% implied probability for Pluto's reclassification as a planet by June 30, anchored in the International Astronomical Union's (IAU) 2006 definition requiring a body to clear its orbital neighborhood—a criterion Pluto fails amid the Kuiper Belt's similar objects like Eris. Despite recent buzz from NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman's comments \"looking into\" the issue after a viral letter from a 10-year-old, the IAU holds sole authority on classifications, with no formal review, proposal, or assembly scheduled before the deadline. New Horizons mission data reinforced Pluto's complex geology but not planetary status. A surprise IAU vote or definition overhaul could shift odds, though historical precedents suggest inertia prevails absent broad scientific consensus.",
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