Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 10?

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    "context_description": "Trader consensus favors \"No\" at 78.5% implied probability for Russian military action—defined as drone, missile, or aerial strikes directed at Kyiv municipality—by April 10, driven by the absence of recent escalatory signals targeting the capital proper. Russian forces have prioritized offensive operations in eastern Ukraine, including northern Kharkiv Oblast, with limited advances reported as of April 6, while strikes in early April focused on Kyiv region outskirts, energy infrastructure, and other areas like Odesa and Zhytomyr. Ukrainian long-range drone campaigns against Russian oil refineries, such as Lukoil's Nizhny Novgorod facility halting operations on April 5, have constrained Moscow's resources. No official announcements or troop movements signal an imminent assault on Kyiv municipality in the remaining two days.",
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