Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Ticker

strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may

Volume

354.7K

24h volume

86.4K

1w volume

341.0K

Open interest

119.9K

Liquidity

48.1K

Liquidity CLOB

48.1K

Start

Mar 31, 2026

End

May 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 31, 2026

Event ID

329821

Slug

strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may

Markets

1

Tags

transit Geopolitics U.S. x Iran Hormuz Macro Geopolitics Oil Strait of Hormuz ships Economy China Iran

Raw event data

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    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects skepticism toward a full resumption of Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic by May 31, with \"No\" at 54.5% amid a fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire announced April 8, 2026. Despite selective passages rising to 21 vessels over the April 6-7 weekend—the highest since late February disruptions—Iran maintains control through $2 million tolls in cryptocurrency and country-specific deals, allowing only limited tankers from China, India, and Iraq while hundreds loiter outside. Pre-war norms of 130 daily transits, including 60 oil tankers, remain 80-95% below amid war risk insurance spikes, mine threats, and infrastructure damage from conflict. Normalization hinges on sustained de-escalation and trust-building; renewed Israeli-Lebanon strikes or enforcement lapses could solidify \"No,\" while steady increases and UN Security Council resolutions might tip toward \"Yes.\"",
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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Vol 354.7KLiq 49.0KEnd May 31, 2026OpenOrder book