US bank failure by June 30?

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  "title": "US bank failure by June 30?",
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  "tags": [
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      "id": "120",
      "label": "Finance",
      "slug": "finance",
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      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:22:21.615+00",
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  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 74.5% implied probability against a US bank failure by June 30, reflecting stability since the isolated FDIC resolution of small Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust ($261 million in assets) on January 30 amid a troubled loan exposure. No further failures have materialized through early April, underscoring sector resilience despite office commercial real estate (CRE) delinquencies hitting 12.34% in CMBS pools and $875 billion in maturities looming this year. Overall bank CRE delinquency rates remain subdued at 1.53%, buoyed by strong capital levels post-2023 reforms. Upcoming catalysts include Q1 earnings releases, Federal Reserve supervisory stress test results in June, and refinancing pressures that could test regional bank margins.",
    "context_requires_regen": false,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-11T17:55:28.250Z"
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