U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.

Ticker

us-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-april-30

Volume

9.7K

24h volume

1.2K

1w volume

4.0K

Open interest

4.6K

Liquidity

9.7K

Liquidity CLOB

9.7K

Start

Mar 24, 2026

End

Apr 30, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 24, 2026

Event ID

304142

Slug

us-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-april-30

Markets

1

Raw event data
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  "title": "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?",
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  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "The U.S. Embassy in Beirut continues normal operations with core diplomatic staff in place after a February 23 ordered departure of non-emergency personnel and family members, prompted by regional tensions including Iran-related threats and Israel-Hezbollah clashes. A Level 4 \"Do Not Travel\" advisory for Lebanon persists, with the latest April 3 security alert citing volatile conditions from airstrikes, drones, and rocket fire while urging U.S. citizens to use commercial flights—without changes to embassy posture. Recent U.S.-Iran temporary ceasefire excludes Lebanon, as Israeli strikes intensify without prompting full evacuation. Trader consensus implying 94.7% \"No\" reflects stable diplomatic presence amid ongoing assessments, though major escalation like direct attacks on U.S. assets could alter outcomes before April 30.",
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