Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?

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    "context_description": "Ahead of Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, trader consensus reflects a 75.5% implied probability of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán exiting office by December 31, driven by opinion polls showing the centre-right Tisza party consistently leading his Fidesz over the past week. Recent surveys, including those reported on April 9, highlight Tisza's widened edge amid widespread voter discontent, fueled by economic pressures, EU tensions, and shifting support from younger demographics spurning Fidesz after 16 years of dominance. Massive anti-government protests in Budapest on April 11 underscore momentum, positioning this as the most competitive parliamentary vote since 2010, where 100 National Assembly seats secure a majority government and prompt leadership transition.",
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