Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?

{
  "id": "326841",
  "ticker": "will-any-country-expel-an-israeli-ambassador-by-december-31",
  "slug": "will-any-country-expel-an-israeli-ambassador-by-december-31",
  "title": "Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAny expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.\n\nQualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.\n\nWhether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
  "resolutionSource": "",
  "startDate": "2026-03-31T19:46:29.74766Z",
  "creationDate": "2026-03-31T19:46:29.747656Z",
  "endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
  "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-any-european-country-expel-an-israeli-ambassador-by-march-31-jNpvruqxAnzs.jpg",
  "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-any-european-country-expel-an-israeli-ambassador-by-march-31-jNpvruqxAnzs.jpg",
  "active": true,
  "closed": false,
  "archived": false,
  "new": false,
  "featured": false,
  "restricted": true,
  "liquidity": 17055.8086,
  "volume": 9597.372079000002,
  "openInterest": 1026.907787,
  "createdAt": "2026-03-30T23:02:22.561223Z",
  "updatedAt": "2026-04-11T12:16:35.119164Z",
  "competitive": 0.9734965562559322,
  "volume24hr": 332.73697899999996,
  "volume1wk": 8473.204500999998,
  "volume1mo": 9597.372078999999,
  "volume1yr": 9597.372078999999,
  "enableOrderBook": true,
  "liquidityClob": 17055.8086,
  "commentCount": 2,
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "1797603",
      "question": "Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?",
      "conditionId": "0x7a4f85f9ebace96909f940927d4cb7d829a18636b7b7bed782ca7dbdf5e391d0",
      "slug": "will-any-country-expel-an-israeli-ambassador-by-december-31",
      "resolutionSource": "",
      "endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "17046.8086",
      "startDate": "2026-03-31T19:44:08.439568Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-any-european-country-expel-an-israeli-ambassador-by-march-31-jNpvruqxAnzs.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-any-european-country-expel-an-israeli-ambassador-by-march-31-jNpvruqxAnzs.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAny expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.\n\nQualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.\n\nWhether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.335\", \"0.665\"]",
      "volume": "9597.372079000002",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2026-03-30T23:02:22.767819Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-11T12:16:20.983369Z",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "",
      "groupItemThreshold": "0",
      "questionID": "0xfa43999d07372e61e7db0832d1bda7b59e39e437579bc0191b8e58d6d4a145a3",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "volumeNum": 9597.372079000002,
      "liquidityNum": 17046.8086,
      "endDateIso": "2026-12-31",
      "startDateIso": "2026-03-31",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 332.73697899999996,
      "volume1wk": 8473.204500999998,
      "volume1mo": 9597.372078999999,
      "volume1yr": 9597.372078999999,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"113264264747658629623168829264136780151466925642430002747989466372998892214294\", \"96752632895694202502332730195765073034491789567557984987910391741774488175215\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume24hrClob": 332.73697899999996,
      "volume1wkClob": 8473.204500999998,
      "volume1moClob": 9597.372078999999,
      "volume1yrClob": 9597.372078999999,
      "volumeClob": 9597.372079000002,
      "liquidityClob": 17046.8086,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-03-31T19:43:03Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0.9734965562559322,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "clobRewards": [
        {
          "id": "123179",
          "conditionId": "0x7a4f85f9ebace96909f940927d4cb7d829a18636b7b7bed782ca7dbdf5e391d0",
          "assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
          "rewardsAmount": 0,
          "rewardsDailyRate": 5,
          "startDate": "2026-04-01",
          "endDate": "2500-12-31"
        }
      ],
      "rewardsMinSize": 50,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
      "spread": 0.03,
      "oneDayPriceChange": -0.01,
      "oneWeekPriceChange": 0.015,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.32,
      "bestBid": 0.32,
      "bestAsk": 0.35,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-31T19:41:48.696272Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "78",
      "label": "Iran",
      "slug": "iran",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:16:51.647+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:16:51.667Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:31:04.117508Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "104064",
      "label": "Israel x Iran",
      "slug": "israel-x-iran",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2026-03-03T03:22:41.390984Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:30:24.067082Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "154",
      "label": "Middle East",
      "slug": "middle-east",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:26:20.585+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:26:20.601Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:31:04.104846Z",
      "forceHide": true,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "100265",
      "label": "Geopolitics",
      "slug": "geopolitics",
      "forceShow": true,
      "createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:29:03.520452Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "180",
      "label": "Israel",
      "slug": "israel",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:31:07.39+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:31:07.395Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:27:02.801468Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "cyom": false,
  "showAllOutcomes": true,
  "showMarketImages": true,
  "enableNegRisk": false,
  "automaticallyActive": true,
  "negRiskAugmented": false,
  "pendingDeployment": false,
  "deploying": false,
  "requiresTranslation": false,
  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Trader consensus implies a 66.5% probability that no country will expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31, reflecting stabilized diplomatic channels amid the Gaza conflict and recent Lebanon escalations. The last verified expulsion was South Africa's declaration of Israel's senior diplomat persona non grata on January 30 over alleged protocol violations, met with Israeli reciprocity; no similar actions have occurred in the past 70 days despite global protests, parliamentary motions in the UK and Ireland, and summonses by UAE amid Doha strike tensions. Governments favor milder responses like UN condemnations and aid critiques, with US-Qatar ceasefire mediation signaling de-escalation potential ahead of key summits.",
    "context_requires_regen": false,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-11T10:29:12.234Z"
  }
}