
Will Eric Swalwell drop out before California primary?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell withdraws from or officially announces his withdrawal from the 2026 California Governor election, or announces the suspension of his 2026 Governor campaign, by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eric Swalwell or his official/legal representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ticker
will-eric-swalwell-drop-out-before-california-primary
Volume
14.6K
24h volume
14.6K
1w volume
14.6K
Open interest
9.2K
Liquidity
5.7K
Liquidity CLOB
5.7K
Start
Apr 10, 2026
End
Jul 1, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Apr 10, 2026
Event ID
365033
Slug
will-eric-swalwell-drop-out-before-california-primary
Markets
1
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Rep. Eric Swalwell faces mounting pressure to drop out of California's June 2 gubernatorial primary following a former staffer's sexual assault allegation that surfaced this week, which he denies. The claim prompted senior campaign staff resignations, withdrawn endorsements from Democratic allies including House leadership, and public calls to exit the race from rival candidates and party figures. This rapid fallout, amid a crowded nonpartisan top-two primary, has driven trader consensus to an 84.5% implied probability of withdrawal, reflecting fears of further erosion in support and potential damage to Democratic prospects against Republican challengers. A formal investigation or Swalwell's response could shift dynamics before the deadline.",
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}- Will Eric Swalwell drop out before California primary?Vol 14.6KLiq 6.0KEnd Jul 1, 2026OpenOrder book