Will Eric Swalwell drop out before California primary?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell withdraws from or officially announces his withdrawal from the 2026 California Governor election, or announces the suspension of his 2026 Governor campaign, by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eric Swalwell or his official/legal representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Ticker

will-eric-swalwell-drop-out-before-california-primary

Volume

14.6K

24h volume

14.6K

1w volume

14.6K

Open interest

9.2K

Liquidity

5.7K

Liquidity CLOB

5.7K

Start

Apr 10, 2026

End

Jul 1, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Apr 10, 2026

Event ID

365033

Slug

will-eric-swalwell-drop-out-before-california-primary

Markets

1

Raw event data
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    "context_description": "Rep. Eric Swalwell faces mounting pressure to drop out of California's June 2 gubernatorial primary following a former staffer's sexual assault allegation that surfaced this week, which he denies. The claim prompted senior campaign staff resignations, withdrawn endorsements from Democratic allies including House leadership, and public calls to exit the race from rival candidates and party figures. This rapid fallout, amid a crowded nonpartisan top-two primary, has driven trader consensus to an 84.5% implied probability of withdrawal, reflecting fears of further erosion in support and potential damage to Democratic prospects against Republican challengers. A formal investigation or Swalwell's response could shift dynamics before the deadline.",
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