Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?

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    "context_description": "Trader consensus reflects an 81.5% implied probability against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu receiving a presidential pardon by June 30, driven by strong legal barriers to pre-trial clemency from President Isaac Herzog. Netanyahu's formal November 2025 request advanced slowly in March 2026 amid U.S. President Trump's repeated public pressure, but the Justice Ministry's Pardons Department declined to recommend it, and a key legal office ruled pardons improper absent resignation, confession, or conviction. Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu submitted a supportive position paper on March 24, prompting the president's office to seek trial precedents, yet his ongoing Tel Aviv District Court testimony in three corruption cases underscores procedural hurdles and rule-of-law priorities with no resolution imminent.",
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