Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?

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    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 89.5% implied probability against Tesla launching driverless robotaxis in California by June 30, driven primarily by the company's failure to secure key regulatory approvals from the California DMV and CPUC. As of March 2026, Tesla Robotaxi LLC holds only a supervised testing permit with zero autonomous miles logged on public roads—well short of the roughly 50,000 supervised miles typically required under proposed rules—despite Elon Musk's repeated claims of imminent rollout. Recent Cybercab sightings in the Bay Area signal testing progress on Full Self-Driving hardware, but California remains a regulatory bottleneck compared to launches in Austin and expansions eyed in Arizona. With under three months left, traders anticipate delays amid strict permitting hurdles and ongoing scrutiny, though surprise DMV filings could shift odds.",
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