Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Ticker

will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-may-31

Volume

321.5K

24h volume

46.0K

1w volume

321.5K

Open interest

248.1K

Liquidity

218.1K

Liquidity CLOB

218.1K

Start

Apr 1, 2026

End

May 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Apr 1, 2026

Event ID

304265

Slug

will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-may-31

Markets

1

Tags

Iran RegimeKhameneiMiddle EastU.S. x IranIranReza PahlaviIsraelIsrael x IranGeopoliticsPolitics
Raw event data
{
  "id": "304265",
  "ticker": "will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-may-31",
  "slug": "will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-may-31",
  "title": "Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.\n\nRoutine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.\n\nPartial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. \n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. ",
  "resolutionSource": "",
  "startDate": "2026-04-01T16:26:26.185791Z",
  "creationDate": "2026-04-01T16:26:26.185787Z",
  "endDate": "2026-05-31T00:00:00Z",
  "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-in-2025-YLXIniTmQs4q.png",
  "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-in-2025-YLXIniTmQs4q.png",
  "active": true,
  "closed": false,
  "archived": false,
  "new": false,
  "featured": false,
  "restricted": true,
  "liquidity": 218138.4031,
  "volume": 321548.29150099907,
  "openInterest": 248102.731266,
  "createdAt": "2026-03-24T19:52:18.772899Z",
  "updatedAt": "2026-04-07T06:49:24.362795Z",
  "competitive": 0.8408837688410519,
  "volume24hr": 45973.39865100001,
  "volume1wk": 321548.2915009992,
  "volume1mo": 321548.2915009992,
  "volume1yr": 321548.2915009992,
  "enableOrderBook": true,
  "liquidityClob": 218138.4031,
  "commentCount": 0,
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "1707932",
      "question": "Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?",
      "conditionId": "0x789c947a9415600d30d56a4aae88d4111996679b0caed166d0c96242fdce92a2",
      "slug": "will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-may-31",
      "resolutionSource": "",
      "endDate": "2026-05-31T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "219199.8276",
      "startDate": "2026-04-01T16:23:13.899442Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-in-2025-YLXIniTmQs4q.png",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-in-2025-YLXIniTmQs4q.png",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.\n\nRoutine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.\n\nPartial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. \n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. ",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.065\", \"0.935\"]",
      "volume": "321548.29150099907",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2026-03-24T19:52:21.047903Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-07T06:50:17.094046Z",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "",
      "groupItemThreshold": "0",
      "questionID": "0x399f6f5751ff9019428a6c3cfae4d3d0ef70e2af2e73c86f622493da059aa896",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "volumeNum": 321548.29150099907,
      "liquidityNum": 219199.8276,
      "endDateIso": "2026-05-31",
      "startDateIso": "2026-04-01",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 45973.39865100001,
      "volume1wk": 321548.2915009992,
      "volume1mo": 321548.2915009992,
      "volume1yr": 321548.2915009992,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"57360053771630303266236723124451177814047338705194149193939656360140487569996\", \"24518145234935510389593655576204486088909794182728020215970587753906648618285\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume24hrClob": 45973.39865100001,
      "volume1wkClob": 321548.2915009992,
      "volume1moClob": 321548.2915009992,
      "volume1yrClob": 321548.2915009992,
      "volumeClob": 321548.29150099907,
      "liquidityClob": 219199.8276,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-04-01T16:22:07Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0.8408837688410519,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "clobRewards": [
        {
          "id": "123305",
          "conditionId": "0x789c947a9415600d30d56a4aae88d4111996679b0caed166d0c96242fdce92a2",
          "assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
          "rewardsAmount": 0,
          "rewardsDailyRate": 100,
          "startDate": "2026-04-01",
          "endDate": "2500-12-31"
        }
      ],
      "rewardsMinSize": 200,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
      "spread": 0.01,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.07,
      "bestBid": 0.06,
      "bestAsk": 0.07,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-04-01T16:20:45.105729Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    }
  ],
  "series": [
    {
      "id": "10134",
      "ticker": "iran-regime",
      "slug": "iran-regime",
      "title": "iran regime",
      "seriesType": "single",
      "recurrence": "monthly",
      "image": "",
      "icon": "",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "archived": false,
      "featured": false,
      "restricted": true,
      "createdAt": "2025-06-17T21:46:44.300321Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-07T06:48:29.113361Z",
      "volume24hr": 970570.6333650005,
      "volume": 62446447.89720129,
      "liquidity": 3022844.08351,
      "commentCount": 3626,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "104005",
      "label": "Iran Regime",
      "slug": "iranian-leadership-regime",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2026-03-02T19:48:14.400431Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:27:23.402244Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "102304",
      "label": "Khamenei",
      "slug": "khamenei",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2025-06-23T18:41:15.452041Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:22:01.871485Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "154",
      "label": "Middle East",
      "slug": "middle-east",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:26:20.585+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:26:20.601Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:31:04.104846Z",
      "forceHide": true,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "104039",
      "label": "U.S. x Iran",
      "slug": "trump-iran",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2026-03-02T20:09:15.156731Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:28:43.535987Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "78",
      "label": "Iran",
      "slug": "iran",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:16:51.647+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:16:51.667Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:31:04.117508Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "103996",
      "label": "Reza Pahlavi",
      "slug": "reza-pahlavi",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2026-03-01T18:06:44.46346Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:25:22.587148Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "180",
      "label": "Israel",
      "slug": "israel",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:31:07.39+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:31:07.395Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:27:02.801468Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "104064",
      "label": "Israel x Iran",
      "slug": "israel-x-iran",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2026-03-03T03:22:41.390984Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:30:24.067082Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "100265",
      "label": "Geopolitics",
      "slug": "geopolitics",
      "forceShow": true,
      "createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:29:03.520452Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "2",
      "label": "Politics",
      "slug": "politics",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
      "updatedBy": 13,
      "createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:26.76623Z",
      "forceHide": true,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "cyom": false,
  "showAllOutcomes": true,
  "showMarketImages": true,
  "enableNegRisk": false,
  "automaticallyActive": true,
  "seriesSlug": "iran-regime",
  "negRiskAugmented": false,
  "pendingDeployment": false,
  "deploying": false,
  "requiresTranslation": false,
  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Trader consensus assigns a 93.5% implied probability to \"No\" on Iranian regime collapse by May 31, driven by the government's demonstrated resilience after U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Despite economic strain from sanctions, currency depreciation, and war damage sparking earlier protests in late 2025 and early 2026, internal security forces—including the Revolutionary Guard—have enforced crackdowns, preventing mass uprisings or defections. Israeli officials recently assessed that conditions remain unripe for popular revolt, with surviving leaders projecting continuity amid leadership transition pressures. Traders view substantial barriers, such as unified security loyalty and absent nationwide unrest, outweighing speculation of imminent fall.",
    "context_requires_regen": false,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-07T06:49:24.030Z"
  }
}