Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30?

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    "context_description": "Trader consensus reflects a 91% implied probability against President Trump formally creating a $2,000 \"tariff dividend\"—direct payments to U.S. citizens funded by tariff revenue—by June 30, 2026, due to the absence of any executive order, federal legislation, or IRS announcement despite widespread tariff implementations since early 2025. Recent developments, including a U.S. Customs tariff refund tool launching April 20 and ongoing adjustments to 10% blanket duties plus higher China tariffs amid court challenges, have generated revenue but no dedicated dividend program. Treasury officials have floated tax cuts as an alternative, while fiscal analyses highlight revenue shortfalls versus payout costs, underscoring procedural and budgetary hurdles with the deadline approaching.",
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