Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?

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    "context_description": "President Trump's explicit statements excluding Lebanon from the recent U.S.-Iran two-week ceasefire—calling it a \"separate skirmish\"—have anchored trader consensus at 51.5% implied probability for no endorsement of an Israeli ceasefire by April 30, reflecting his alignment with Prime Minister Netanyahu's position amid intensified Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets that killed over 250 in a single day. This closely contested market balances Trump's pro-Israel foreign policy and reports of private urging to scale back operations against diplomatic pressures from Iran, which insists on regional inclusion, and upcoming direct Israel-Lebanon talks hosted in the U.S. Escalation in Lebanon or stalled Hormuz reopening could solidify \"No,\" while successful negotiations might prompt Trump endorsement.",
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