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Fed Decision in July?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Ticker
fed-decision-in-july
Volume
3.3M
24h volume
11.7K
1w volume
548.9K
Open interest
75.8K
Liquidity
312.8K
Liquidity CLOB
312.8K
Start
Mar 20, 2026
End
Jul 29, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 20, 2026
Event ID
287395
Slug
fed-decision-in-july-181
Markets
5
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Polymarket traders price an 80.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by the resilient March nonfarm payrolls report released April 3 showing 178,000 jobs added—well above subdued expectations—and steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year. This labor market strength, alongside the Fed's March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% and dot plot signaling just one 25 basis point cut by year-end 2026, has solidified trader consensus for a pause amid lingering inflation risks from recent geopolitical tensions. A modest 12.5% odds on a 25 bps cut reflect potential softening if upcoming March CPI (April 10) or April FOMC data surprises lower, while hike probabilities remain negligible.",
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}- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Vol 89.0KLiq 22.5KEnd Jul 29, 2026OpenOrder book
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