The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Ticker
fed-decision-in-july-181
Volume
38.7M
24h volume
544.4K
1w volume
15.4M
Open interest
7.1M
Liquidity
4.9M
Liquidity CLOB
4.9M
Start
Mar 20, 2026
End
Jul 29, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 20, 2026
Event ID
287395
Slug
fed-decision-in-july-181
Markets
5
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"description": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
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"context_description": "Persistent inflation pressures from the May 2026 CPI report, which showed a 4.2% year-over-year rise driven by a 23.5% surge in energy costs amid Middle East tensions, have anchored trader expectations for the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the June decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh, market-implied odds heavily favor no change at 79.5%, reflecting caution as June CPI data arrives July 14. Modest 19.4% pricing for a 25 basis point hike incorporates dot-plot signals that nine officials anticipate at least one increase this year, while negligible probabilities for cuts underscore limited downside risks given resilient labor markets and elevated Treasury yields. Geopolitical and data-dependent factors remain key swing elements before resolution.",
"context_requires_regen": true,
"context_updated_at": "2026-06-18T02:31:31.891Z"
}
}Tickers mapped from the event's catalyst themes.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
Bank of America Corporation
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
Wells Fargo & Company
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
Citigroup Inc.
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
Morgan Stanley
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
Charles Schwab Corporation
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
Capital One
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
American Express Company
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
Synchrony Financial
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
Visa Inc.
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
Mastercard Incorporated
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
S&P Global Inc.
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.